Carrier's CEO told investors the company "can and will continue to raise price," citing tariffs and metal costs. Trane has already raised residential prices twice in 2026, by up to 5% each time. HVAC contractors should update their price books and reconsider how long their quotes stay valid.
If you're an HVAC contractor, the numbers behind every quote you write just got less stable.
What happened: Carrier signals more increases, Trane has already moved twice
At a recent investor conference, Carrier's CEO said the company "can and will continue to raise price," pointing to tariffs and the cost of copper, steel, and aluminum. Trane has already raised residential prices twice in 2026, by up to 5% each time (ACHR News, Sep 18, 2026).
There's a more encouraging thread in the same report. Carrier says residential demand is beating its own expectations, and the trend of homeowners repairing older systems instead of replacing them has "largely subsided." In plain terms: more homeowners are choosing to replace rather than patch, even with equipment costing more.
Why it matters: your margin depends on how long a quote sits
Rising equipment costs squeeze margin on any job priced before the next increase lands. If your price book was last updated a few months ago, or if your quotes stay valid for 60 or 90 days, you're carrying the risk of a cost increase between the day you quote a job and the day you install it. That risk gets sharper the more increases stack up in a single year, which is exactly what's happening in 2026.
The stronger replacement demand is the upside. If homeowners are choosing full replacements over repairs more often, that's more high-ticket work available, provided your pricing and your marketing both reflect the current cost of doing that work.
What to do this week
- Pull your current price book and compare it against your suppliers' latest pricing. If it's more than a month or two old, it's probably behind. Run a job through our profit margin calculator to see exactly what a supplier increase does to your margin before you update anything.
- Shorten how long a quote stays valid, or build in an escalation clause. A 90-day fixed quote written today assumes prices hold, and that assumption is getting worse.
- Lean into replacement messaging if you're seeing the same demand shift. Stronger replacement interest is worth reflecting in how you market, not just how you price.
Matt's take
I'd tell most HVAC owners right now that a 30-day quote validity window is more realistic than 60 or 90, given how often equipment pricing is moving in 2026. The shops I see handling this well aren't hiding the increase from homeowners. They're explaining it in one sentence: manufacturer costs went up, here's what changed, here's the number today. Homeowners generally accept a straight explanation better than a vague one.
On messaging: if Carrier's right that more homeowners are choosing replacement over repair, that's worth reflecting directly in your marketing, not just your pricing. A service page or ad that still leans heavily on "repair" language when the market's shifting toward "replace" is leaving demand on the table. Test replacement-focused messaging and see whether your lead quality shifts with it.
The margin conversation is the one I'd push hardest on. It's easy to keep quoting off last quarter's price book because updating it feels like paperwork. But every job quoted at an old price, installed after a new increase, is margin you gave away for no reason. Update the price book on a set schedule, not whenever someone remembers to.
